2024/08/23 15:11
A robot feast: how to balance the "moon" and "sixpence"?
2024/08/23 15:11
The annual World Robot Conference is a microcosm of the development of the entire robot industry, from which we can see the ideal of the future of the entire industry and enterprises.
As far as 2024 is concerned, this is a feast for robots, and it is also a collective carnival of embodied intelligence companies.
Author: Sihang
Editor|Pi Ye
Produced by an industrialist
"We can pick up sixpence on the ground and look up at the moon in the sky."
This classic quote from "The Moon and Sixpence" could not be more apt to describe today's robot craze.
On August 21, a grand banquet belonging to robots was grandly opened in Yizhuang, Beijing, not far from the International Robot Industrial Park. At the annual World Robot Conference, more than 169 companies participated in the exhibition this year, and more than 60 new products were launched. From bipedal humanoid robots to wheeled humanoid robots, from robot dogs to robotic arms, various forms of robots remind people of a future in which both humans and machines participate.
When you enter the venue, you will be greeted by several different types of humanoid robots. Unlike last year, this year's humanoid robots seem to be smarter, more realistic, and more intelligent. From more realistic skins, to more steady steps, and a group of dancing robots, these are the best testimonies to the development of robots today. There is no doubt that in today's era of embodied intelligence, humanoid robots have also become the "highlight" of this World Artificial Intelligence Conference.
Under this feast, on the one hand, there are participants immersed in the "show-off" of robots, and on the other hand, exhibitors who are busy demonstrating their own robots, and the mood of the two sides seems to be different. In fact, the attitude of the exhibitors regarding humanoid robots is not blindly optimistic, among them, there are calm conservatives, there are also radical optimists. Some companies believe that their humanoid robots will be mass-produced next year, while others are full of concerns about the commercialization of humanoid robots.
It can be said that today's robot market has its own merits in terms of technology and robot form, as well as business model and price.
Next, the industrialist will take you up close to this robot feast:
Humanoid robots have finally made their way from the lab to the real world. At the scene, some robots were showing off their grasping ability, some were showing off their running and jumping abilities, and some even played a football game.
Robot soccer match at the World Robotics Conference
All kinds of showmanship demonstrations are proving to the attendees how "silky" humanoid robots are today. However, most of the actual displays in the exhibition hall do not seem to be related to the actual landing scenario, the former conveys a signal of technological maturity, while the latter is a more realistic commercial consideration.
Overall, at present, robots that are really moving towards complex life scenarios such as home or personal use are still in the minority at this WRC conference, and there are very few that can really be commercialized.
First of all, in C-end scenarios such as home, entertainment, and companionship, the three most representative robots at this exhibition are Unitree's G1 robot, UniX AI's Wanda and iFLYTEK's humanoid robot.
Among them, Unitree's robot performance can be said to be one of the most eye-catching manufacturers in this exhibition.
The taller robot in black in the picture is the H1 robot of Unitree Technology, and the other slightly smaller is the G1 robot. The latter is a recently released robot, with 23-43 joint motors all over the body, and although it is only 127cm tall, it is obviously more flexible in operation. More importantly, compared with Unitree's H1 robot worth more than 600,000, the price of G1 is only 99,000, and the scene is not limited to enterprise applications, as well as family companionship.
The other is a new face at this year's WRC, UniX AI, a company that was just founded in the first half of 2024. What impressed everyone was that less than half a year after its establishment, it launched a humanoid robot for family scenes. The uses of this wheeled humanoid robot include washing clothes, cooking, and organizing clothes, to name a few. And this is also one of the few humanoid robots on the market that is biased towards the C-end.
Its founder and CEO Yang Fengyu once told the industry that the more important reason for starting from the C-end is also to activate the application of more complex life scenarios, so as to form a data flywheel (data desensitization). This is also to better move towards universal robots.
So since it is a robot sold to consumers, a question that everyone is concerned about is what is the price? In this regard, the industrialists learned from the scene that although the specific price has not yet been announced, it is expected to be between smartphones and the cheapest new energy vehicles.
But in fact, at this WRC conference, we still see more applications and explorations around B-end scenarios. After all, on the one hand, it is the recruitment dilemma of enterprises, and on the other hand, there is a lack of data and manufacturers for robot manufacturers. For robots that are currently in the early stages of development, data, scenarios, and large-scale commercial landing are the most needed. In this regard, many old robot manufacturers also choose to face the B-side, such as UBTECH, the "first share of humanoid robots", and Keenon, which has been established for 14 years.
At the WRC conference, there was not only the display of the Walker S series, but also the release and first display of the "Humanoid Robot Industrial Scenario Solution", which is also the world's first universal humanoid robot solution for multi-task industrial scenarios. From quality inspection, handling, to sorting, the Walker S series is more flexible and stable.
It is worth mentioning that this is also one of the few humanoid robots that can be commercialized. It is understood that UBTECH's Walker S series has entered Dongfeng Liuzhou, Geely Automobile, FAW Hongqi, FAW-Volkswagen Qingdao Branch, Audi FAW and other automobile companies, 3C company Foxconn, logistics company SF Express and many other manufacturing companies.
In this regard, the relevant person in charge of UBTECH introduced to the industrialist, "At present, a particularly big difficulty in the industrial field is the difficulty of recruitment, because this is a 24-hour, repetitive type of work. We hope to have humanoid robots assist humans in these tedious and repetitive tasks. Therefore, robots in the industrial field are considered a strong demand. In terms of technology, it mainly focuses on stability, reliability, usability, and safety, which are also the direction of our continuous efforts. ”
Similarly, as a veteran robot manufacturer, Keenon is mainly oriented to B-end scenarios, such as robots that are often encountered in hotels, supermarkets and restaurants in daily life.
At the scene, the industrialists also learned that one of the applications of Keenon smart in the hotel is connected to the smart vending machine, for example, when the guest places an order in the room, the robot will automatically pick up the goods from the vending machine and deliver it to the guest's room. With this connection, the average monthly income of the robot to the hotel is 3,000 yuan, which just offsets the monthly rent of the Keenon intelligent robot.
And this SaaS subscription model is also the business model that many robot manufacturers are exploring today.
KEENON Intelligence's new robot with a robotic arm
Of course, there are several star embodied intelligence companies at this exhibition, such as Zhiyuan Robot, which completed 6 rounds of financing in one year, and its founder Zhi Huijun released the new robot expedition A2 again before the opening of this conference; Another example is another embodied intelligence enterprise that is also sought after by capital, Galaxy General.
The Galaxy General Robot is handling on site
Overall, these robot companies can be said to be "busy with their own", and for the technical and business routes, although everyone has their own opinions, however, in today's humanoid robots are still in the early stage of development, it is difficult to distinguish between these issues.
Compared to the humanoid robots in Hall B, Hall A looks more calm. It is home to two of the four major robot families, ABB and KUKA, the world's star robotics company Tesla, and some robots in the field of heavy industry. On them, there are less "show-offs" of humanoid robots, and more non-humanoid robots, but they are also inseparable from robotic arms.
The picture above is a customized robot created by Peitian Robot for Beijing Electromechanical. For example, in large industrial enterprises, the software and hardware collaboration of robots is a particularly important part.
In this regard, JD Logistics can be said to be a typical case applied to large manufacturing enterprises. It can be clearly noticed that, unlike other robot companies, JD Logistics emphasizes more on software and hardware collaboration, as well as more complete solutions within the industrial park.
The scene also showed its internal operation system, from the ground wolf to the ground wolf charging pile, from the workstation, the ground wolf shelf to the ground QR code, such a complete system can be run within the enterprise, and the screen is displayed in the actual application of JD logistics robots in several major scenarios.
However, in addition to the application of non-humanoid robots in heavy industry, there are also some lighter applications. In this regard, Orion Star is also a very typical robot company, its chairman and CEO Fu Sheng has publicly stated that he is not optimistic about the commercialization of bipedal robots, but since its establishment in 2016, it has also explored many fields such as medical care, education, and life services in the past few years.
At this WRC conference, some examples were also presented.
Fu Sheng told the media present, "I think the technical complexity of the bipedal robot is too high, and I am not optimistic about its mass production and market acceptance in the short term." And I think that the robot should be further intelligent in the future to expand its application scenarios. ”
However, in terms of the specific application of non-humanoid robots, Fu Sheng said that at present, Orion Star's sales in overseas markets have exceeded that of the domestic market, and the main application scenarios include delivery and interaction, such as food delivery in restaurants and explanation and guidance.
In addition, it was revealed that Orion Star plans to develop a labor robot with a robotic arm and non-bipedal in the second half of the year.
It can be seen that the current attitude towards robots, from the business route to the form of the robot, to the specific landing, everyone is a benevolent and wise person.
On the one hand, the starting point, position and genes of the enterprises themselves are different; On the other hand, some traditional Internet companies, cloud vendors, traditional robot companies and embodied intelligence startups are also born in different backgrounds. But now this state of a hundred flowers is also the normal state of an industry in the early stage of development.
As the relevant person in charge of UBTECH said, "At the stage of today's humanoid robots, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain also need to be reshaped." "Whether it is the perception of downstream enterprises, or the selection of upstream suppliers, etc., it is a new game.
Different from Fu Sheng's cautious attitude, in today's humanoid robot market, many companies are planning mass production.
If Musk's statement about the mass production of 1,000 bipedal robots next year is too radical, then the plan of such an embodied intelligence company in China is more "reliable".
On the eve of the 2024WRC conference, after the release of new products by Zhiyuan Robot, Jiang Qingsong, partner and vice president of marketing, revealed to the media, "The company estimates that the bipedal humanoid robot Expedition A2 will ship about 200 units this year, and the wheeled humanoid robot Expedition A2-W will be about 100 units." ”
At the same time, Kepler CEO Hu Debo recently said, "The company plans to complete the mass production of the first batch of 100-200 humanoid robots in September and October this year, and is expected to enter the stage of small batch deployment next year." ”
As the "first stock of humanoid robots" focusing on the toB field, in UBTECH's view, "mass production does not require anxiety, anxiety is the scene." I think we have a great opportunity for mass production in the industrial field in the future. ”
Indeed, when we carefully explore the business model of the above-mentioned robot companies, we can find that on the basis of mature technology, what is more important is the scenario and how to land.
Although at present, what Zhiyuan shows and publicizes is the expedition series of humanoid robots. But what can be seen is that it is really sold in large quantities; On the other hand, Zhiyuan robot is customized, and customers can customize it according to their needs;
The other business model is SaaS subscription, which can be divided into software and hardware subscriptions; For example, Keenon's business model in hotels is a relatively simple hardware subscription; UBTECH, on the other hand, is a combination of software and hardware to jointly generate a set of solutions in the industrial field.
Still, there are still many obstacles to the robot's landing. In the field of toB, the most important consideration for enterprises to purchase robots is cost. The cost here is divided into several aspects. On the one hand, it is the cost savings of replacing manpower; On the other hand, there is the cost of regular maintenance of the robot, which is also a more important consideration, especially in the early stages.
At this WRC conference, the industry learned from UBTECH that in the latest Walker S series robot industrial scenario solutions, the delivery personnel have been gradually reduced, and only 2 people are currently needed for regular technical maintenance.
In fact, the annual World Robot Conference is just a microcosm of the development of the entire robot industry. But what can be seen from it is the ideal in the heart of the enterprise. For 2024, this is a feast for robots, and it is also a collective carnival for embodied intelligence companies.
Behind the "show-offs" of each robot is their imagination of the future of robots. As the embodied intelligence startup UniX AI has its motto "Everyone should have a robot".
However, the ultimate pursuit of technology and the breakthrough of commercialization are often two ways of thinking. But "the moon does not conflict with sixpence, we can pick up sixpence on the ground and look up at the moon in the sky at the same time, because dreams and reality do not contradict each other." ”
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