1. Market status and development trends

At present, the humanoid robot market is still in the early stages, and although there has been a lot of big news and social buzz in the past year, the overall progress has not been as fast as everyone thinks. It is expected that in the next 2 to 3 years, there will be a very big breakthrough at the hardware level, bringing significant improvements in reliability, cost and hardware indicators. Motion control and AI are developing simultaneously, and new motion control technologies will emerge in the next few years.

Although the humanoid robot market is lively, there is a relative lack of landing application scenarios. It is expected that it will take 1 to 10 years for humanoid robots to be used in large areas in industrial scenarios such as factories, and even longer to enter homes. In the long run, this is an area worth investing in, but it requires patience.

2. AI chips and cost

At present, AI computing power is mainly dominated by NVIDIA, AMD is the second echelon, and domestic products such as Huawei also have production, but the overall is relatively primary. The price of NVIDIA's GPU chips is higher, with the price of GPU chips of 100 TOPS being several thousand yuan, and the price of hundreds of TOPS of the AGX series being between 15,000 and 16,000 yuan. The cost of GPU boards ranges from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan.

The gap between the market price and the cost of NVIDIA's GPU chips is huge, and the actual cost of chips with a market price of three or four thousand yuan may only be tens to hundreds of yuan, and the gross profit margin is extremely high. Future price declines require adequate market competition, and the current situation of Nvidia dominating the market is not conducive to long-term development.

3. Open source technology and domestic manufacturers

MIT's open-source bionic robot lab code has prompted a number of domestic companies to start making their own products, but because these products are based on laboratory solutions, the performance and quality control are poor. Companies that insist on self-research will develop better, and mastering the core technology is the key.

Boston Dynamics did not open source its technology because it took some money from the United States military and could not open source it. The price tag is high, with an entry-level robot dog costing $75,000 and an industry version that is more expensive and not sold in the Chinese market. Domestic manufacturers have advantages in cost and market application.

4. Cooperation and technology application

NVIDIA has advanced the field of humanoid robotics by opening up its simulation platform and investing in humanoid robotics companies. Its simulation platform is free and open, attracting a large number of users, and ultimately driving sales of its hardware products. Nvidia has partnered with OpenAI and other companies to integrate brain algorithms and ontology technology, and the future is promising.

Domestic manufacturers such as Tencent are also exploring in the field of quadruped robots, and the technical difficulty is not large, mainly through visual inspection and motion control. Tencent is also cooperating with other manufacturers, and there are more possibilities for cooperation in the future.

5. Cost control and market prospects

Self-developed core components are the key to reducing costs, such as joint modules, batteries, computing boards, and perception modules. Through self-development and self-production, significant costs can be reduced. In the future, the price of humanoid robots may fall further, but there are trade-offs in functionality.

The market demand for quadruped robots is large, and it is expected that the average annual shipment will reach tens of thousands of units in the next three years, and the market size will reach billions. Power inspection is an important application scenario with huge demand, and it may reach a trillion-level market in the future.

6. Application scenarios and market demand

Humanoid robots have a wide range of application prospects in the fields of power inspection, park patrol, and community patrol, and can replace some human resources. The market demand is large, but long-term investment and policy support are needed.

At present, the sales volume of the B-end market is higher, but the C-end shipments are larger. The growth rate of the B-end market may be higher in the future, but it is necessary to find practical application scenarios.

Q&A

Q: What is the current competitive landscape of the humanoid robot market?

A: At present, the whole humanoid robot track is still in its early stages. Although there has been a lot of big news in the past year and social attention is also high, the overall progress has not been as fast as everyone thinks. As an intelligent hardware product, the development cycle of humanoid robots is still at the critical point of breakthrough, and it is expected that in the next 2 to 3 years, there will be significant breakthroughs at the hardware level, including the improvement of reliability, cost and hardware indicators. At the same time, motion control and AI are also developing in tandem.

Q: What is the future development trend of humanoid robots in terms of hardware and AI?

A: In terms of hardware, it is expected that there will be significant breakthroughs in the next 2 to 3 years to improve reliability, reduce costs and improve hardware indicators. In terms of motion control, from the initial zero-torque control to model-based predictive control, to the latest reinforcement learning motion control, new motion control technologies will emerge in the future. In terms of AI, since the emergence of technologies such as general large models and ChatGPT, artificial intelligence has entered a new era, and there will be a more rapid development trend in the future. Overall, although the humanoid robot market is lively, the application scenarios are still relatively lacking, and it is expected that it will take 1 to 10 years for large-scale application, and it will take longer to enter thousands of households.

Q: What will be the approximate level of hardware cost for the integration of artificial intelligence chips into the robot body in the future? Which manufacturers' products need to be purchased?

A: At present, in terms of AI computing power, NVIDIA is basically in a monopoly position, and AMD is the second echelon. There are also some domestic manufacturers such as Huawei in production, but the whole is still in the initial stage. Now the price of 100 TOPS GPU chips is a few thousand yuan, while the price of AGX chips (hundreds of TOPS) is between 15,000 and 16,000 yuan, which is only the price of bare boards. In practice, interface boards and carrier boards are also required, which also increase costs. In general, the price of GPU boards ranges from a few thousand to tens of thousands of yuan, depending on the computing power requirements.

Q: What is the current price-performance ratio of GPUs? Is it possible to reduce costs in the future?

A: At present, the cost performance of GPUs is not high, mainly because Nvidia is the only one, resulting in higher pricing than the actual cost. If other strong companies enter the market in the future, forming full market competition, the price may be reduced. Nvidia's margins are very high at the moment, and the pricing is disproportionate to the actual cost.

Q: If the humanoid robot artificial intelligence chip is replaced by domestic production, how much can the cost be reduced in the future?

A: There is no clear answer at present, but it can be speculated that if domestic chips can replace existing imported chips and form market competition, the cost is expected to decrease. However, how much it can be reduced still needs to be further observed in the development of the market and the progress of technology.

Q: What is the gross profit margin of NVIDIA's hardware products?

A: The market price of NVIDIA's hardware products, such as its GPU series, is about three or four thousand yuan, and its production cost is only a few dozen to a few hundred yuan, and the gross profit margin is as high as dozens of times. In contrast, the gross profit margins of traditional hardware products such as air conditioners, automobiles, and mobile phones are typically between 12% and 20%. As a result, NVIDIA's high gross margins are unusual in hardware products. Although Nvidia currently dominates the market, this may not be the case for long, and more companies will need to enter the market in the future to promote competition.

Q: What is the impact of MIT and Boston Dynamics' open source on China's robotics industry?

A: MIT has open-sourced the research results of its bionic robotics laboratory, including hardware and software, which has led to a number of companies at home and abroad, especially in China, starting to develop their own products based on these open source materials. However, these products perform mediocre in terms of quality control and performance. Some domestic companies, such as Duogou (now Pengxing Intelligence), Future and Youbaote, have iteratively based on MIT's open source solutions, but because these solutions themselves are at the laboratory level, there are many limitations and are difficult to use as market-oriented standard products. In contrast, companies that insist on independent research and development perform better in terms of development. Therefore, mastering core technologies and independent research and development are crucial to the success of products. Boston Dynamics did not open source its code.

Q: Has Boston Dynamics open-sourced its code?

A: Boston Dynamics has never open-sourced its code.

Q: What is the pricing and commercialization of Boston Dynamics' humanoid robots and robot dogs?

A: Boston Dynamics' humanoid robots and robot dogs are priced higher, with the price of entry-level robot dogs being $75,000, or more than one million yuan, especially if you add accessories such as navigation modules, robotic arms, and camera modules, the prices will be higher. In addition, Boston Dynamics' products have not been smooth in terms of commercialization, mainly due to price-performance issues and high prices. The company is also limited by United States military funding, cannot be open sourced, and its products are not sold in markets such as China, Russia and Iran.

Q: How does Boston Dynamics compete in the global market?

A: Boston Dynamics' competitiveness in the global market has declined, mainly due to its high prices and poor service. In contrast, the Chinese market is the world's largest application market, and domestic manufacturers have surpassed Boston Dynamics in some aspects through their understanding of costs and application scenarios, and continuous polishing of technology and services. Domestic manufacturers have greater advantages in the global market, including North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific.

Q: What is the cost of quadruped robots that domestic manufacturers can reach the same level as Boston Dynamics?

A: If a domestic manufacturer can achieve a quadruped robot at the same level as Boston Dynamics, the cost will be about 100,000 yuan.

Q: What are the main aspects of cooperation between domestic manufacturers and NVIDIA in the direction of general basic model?

A: NVIDIA is very good at doing simulations, and they have opened up the two simulation platforms, IG and IC, for everyone to use for free. These platforms are not open-source but are free to use. After the simulation is carried out through these platforms, if the simulation results are to be applied to the physical robot, NVIDIA's computing power module is required. Because NVIDIA's CUDA is used for simulation, NVIDIA's products are usually selected when selecting computing modules.

Q: What are NVIDIA's key investments and partnerships?

A: Nvidia has invested in a United States humanoid robot company and is jointly investing with EU AI. This company focuses on ontology and motion control, while OpenAI provides the brain's algorithms and Nvidia provides the computing resources. The combination of the three makes the development prospects of humanoid robots promising, and the overall resources and geographical location are very favorable. Compared to Tesla, this company has an advantage.

Q: Is there any possibility for domestic manufacturers to cooperate with Tencent to develop robot dogs and other robot technologies?

A: The robot dog made by Tencent mainly detects the position of the plum blossom pile by visually, and then plans the foothold through the motion control algorithm. At present, this technology does not apply a large number of AI models, but more of a combination of perception and motion control. Other manufacturers can also achieve similar technology, and some universities or research institutes buy ready-made robot dogs for development. Tencent is biased towards software, and most of the company's hardware is outsourced, and there are already some cooperation projects in progress.

Q: How did the Unit G released by Unitree achieve low cost when the price dropped to less than 100,000 yuan? Can other manufacturers achieve the same price competitiveness?

A: The implementation of low cost first requires full-stack self-development, and key modules, batteries, computing boards, and perception modules all need to be independently developed. Unitree achieves low cost through self-development, while other manufacturers mostly purchase ready-made modules or custom development, which has a higher cost. Secondly, Unitree greatly reduces the cost by self-harvesting cells, welding and BMS management system by itself. In contrast, other manufacturers mostly purchase ready-made battery packs and modules, which are more expensive.

Q: What is the price and configuration of the humanoid robot?

A: The full-size humanoid robot, including hands, heads, feet and other parts, is priced at 99,000 yuan. If the sensor and arm are removed, and only the leg is left, the price can be further reduced. There is a bipedal robot launched by a company in Shenzhen with a price of about 40,000 yuan, but this cannot be called a humanoid robot, it can only be regarded as a bipedal robot.

Q: Is it possible for the price of robot dogs to drop below 10,000 yuan?

A: At present, the minimum price of the robot dog has dropped to 9997 yuan. If the price is to be further reduced, a new plan needs to be adopted, and it is expected that the minimum can be reduced to five or six thousand yuan, but it will be difficult to go any lower. The number of motors of robot dogs is large, and the cost is higher than that of drones, so it is difficult for the price to further drop significantly.

Q: How many motors do you need for a humanoid robot?

A: The number of motors required for a humanoid robot depends on its configuration. If there is no dexterous hand, there are generally more than 20 degrees of freedom, which is equivalent to more than 20 motors. If you add dexterous hands, the degrees of freedom can reach more than 40, and more than 40 motors are required accordingly. Different manufacturers have different solutions, and the number of motors and degrees of freedom will also vary.

Q: Some domestic manufacturers of humanoid robots have the ability to kick and flip, is this technology common?

A: Most companies can do the ability to kick down, but it depends on the strength of the kick. As for the backflip, at present, only UBTECH's full-scale electrically driven humanoid robot has done it in the world. Other companies, such as Boston Dynamics' hydraulic version of Atlas, can also do it, but only UBTECH, which is electrically driven, has achieved this technology.

Q: Can Tesla's humanoid robot do backflips?

A: Tesla has not demonstrated the movement performance of the lower body of its humanoid robot, but mainly demonstrates the dexterous operation of the upper body. Tesla may not be able to realize dynamic actions such as backflips due to the limitations of hardware solutions. If they could, they would have released the video a long time ago.

Q: At present, domestic humanoid robots use 3D lidar and depth camera, what is the approximate procurement cost of these two?

A: The price of the depth camera is roughly more than 2,000 yuan (such as Intel RealSense D435), and the depth camera of domestic brands such as Yinniu Microelectronics and Obi Zhongguang will be cheaper, but the price difference is not large. The price difference of lidar is large, the domestic Suteng Juchuang and lazy lidar are cost-effective, while the price of foreign lidar is higher, in general, the price difference of 3D lidar can reach thousands to tens of thousands of yuan.

Q: What are the advantages and disadvantages of the pure vision solution and the LiDAR depth camera solution?

A: The hardware cost of the pure vision solution is low, but there is a certain probability of failure in the environment such as light and fog. Although the solution of LiDAR depth camera is more expensive, it is more stable in complex environments. Different companies choose different solutions according to their own technical characteristics, such as Tesla uses a pure vision solution, while other companies use a hybrid solution of LiDAR and depth camera.

Q: Is it enough to use one 3D lidar for a single robot?

A: Yes, at the moment, one 3D lidar is enough.

Q: Will the combination of Google's multimodal model and robots lead to a deep change in the technology path?

A: If Google's multimodal model can be open-sourced, it will have a positive impact on the field of robotics and AI. Open source can accelerate product progress, drive the entire industry forward, and be consumer- and user-friendly.

Q: Does VisionNav Robotics need to be equipped with five fingers as standard?

A: It depends on the application scenario. Many tasks can be done with three fingers today, but from a versatility perspective, five fingers is an advantage, albeit at a higher cost and reliability. In the future, in order to achieve wider versatility, the need for five fingers remains.

Q: What is the current annual shipment volume of quadruped robots and robot dogs in China?

A: The annual shipment of quadruped robots and robot dogs is about 10,000 to 20,000 units, and the sales of full-size humanoid robots are less than 1,000 units, and they may reach the level of 10,000 units next year.

Q: What is the average shipment price of domestic robot dogs? What is the expected average annual shipment volume over the next three years?

A: At present, the average shipment price of domestic robot dogs is less than 100,000 yuan. The average annual shipment in the next three years is expected to be tens of thousands of units, possibly reaching more than 110,000 units.

Q: In the next three years, will the market for quadruped robots or robot dogs be larger than the market for humanoid robots?

A: Yes, the market for quadruped robots or robot dogs will be much larger than the market for humanoid robots. It will take longer for humanoid robots to reach 10,000 units per year.

Q: What is the market demand for quadruped robots in power inspection?

A: The market demand for quadruped robots in power inspection is very large, and the future is promising, and it may reach the trillion level.

Q: What is the size of the power inspection market?

A: The scale of the power inspection market is very large, according to current estimates, if a province adopts all robot inspection equipment, the demand may reach tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of equipment, including the rental of robots and the cost of technical transformation. The overall market size is expected to be between a few hundred and hundreds of billions of yuan.

Q: Does the company have any demand for aerospace applications?

A: At present, the company has communicated some needs for aerospace applications, but these requirements are still in the early stages, mainly due to the extreme temperature difference of the aerospace environment and the communication problems of the unknown environment. In addition, the current space field is mainly in the form of lunar rovers or Mars rovers, and robots may play a greater role in future construction projects.

Q: What is the technical demand and market prospect of individual soldiers equipped with robot dogs in the future?

A: The technical needs and market prospects of individual robot dogs are very broad, although the company itself is not involved in the research and development of specific military products, but the military's research institutes and development companies are already carrying out relevant research and development. Mechanized troops are the direction to be promoted at the national strategic level in the future, and this will be a normal development idea.

Q: What is the proportion of the company's products in the sales of C-end and B-end?

A: From the perspective of sales, the contribution of the B-end is larger, but in terms of shipments, the proportion of the C-end is higher, because the unit price of the C-end products is lower.

Q: What is the growth expectation of the C-end and B-end in the next 3 to 5 years?

A: If the B-end market demand is released, its growth will be exponential, and the growth rate is very terrifying; In contrast, the growth of the C-end market is more difficult, and it is necessary to find practical uses that can impress consumers. The B-end market has a high ceiling and a large market share, but its development speed is relatively slow and requires long-term investment.

Q: What is the most potential market segment in the future to B?

A: The inspection market is the most potential market segment, the future of the company will not only focus on power inspection, but also expand to all security inspection areas, such as parks, community patrol and public safety inspection, etc., which can be replaced by robots part of the human resources.

Q: Who are the main purchasers in the inspection market?

A: Procurement is mainly led by private units such as parks and communities, rather than relying solely on government procurement. Many of the inspection needs come from the property fee expenditure of the community, so this market has both B-end and C-end characteristics.

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